The 2011 Oakland A's Catchers

The Starting Job

This one is pretty simple. Unless something completely unforeseen occurs this winter, Kurt Suzuki will be the A's starting catcher on opening day. As things stand right now, that's probably in addition to roughly 140 more games to follow, including his role as DH from time-to-time. While his total games played in 2010 turned out to be a personal low for Suzuki among his first three full seasons in the Majors, his 131 appearances still placed him in the top 4 among Major League catchers-not necessarily to the Athletics' benefit. Of those four catchers, Suzuki's .669 OPS was the worst. If you think fourth out of four of the most "everyday" of the everyday catchers might be too small of a sample size, Suzuki's numbers only look worse with further examination. There were 19 big-league catchers to appear in at least 100 games in 2010; only Alex Avila, Ivan Rodriguez, and Jason Kendall had an OPS lower than Kurt Suzuki's.

Although 2010 was undeniably a down year for Suzuki, he's been one of the more overrated catchers in baseball ever since his first full season in 2008. Not to take anything away from what he could quite conceivably do in the future, it should be noted that his WAR's actually fallen each year since then. That could certainly be attributed to the league-wide mediocrity of the catching position, but that's really only applicable to his first couple years. More offensive-minded catchers seem to be cropping up all over baseball. In 2009, Suzuki finished fifth in WAR, despite putting up somewhat pedestrian numbers compared to the non-catching majority. Among the top 30 MLB catchers in games played in 2010, 13 of them had a higher OPS than Kurt Suzuki did in 2009, his best season to date. Yes, that means the 2009 version of Kurt Suzuki would place 14^th among these 30 catchers, which is "good" by comparison at the very least. But the 2009 version of Kurt Suzuki was among the better catchers in a pool of inferior talent compared to that of 2010. Brian McCann, Joe Mauer, Buster Posey, Carlos Ruiz, Jorge Posada, John Buck, Ramon Hernandez, and Geovany Soto all posted an OPS over .790 in 2010. If Victor Martinez still counts as a catcher then add his name to the list also. That means there are twice as many good-hitting catchers now as there were a year ago. What does this mean for next season? Kurt Suzuki's poor 2010 means his relative value has dropped even more than it appears. The recent emergence of league-wide talent behind the plate has consequentially made Kurt Suzuki nothing much more than a "tolerable" catcher entering the 2011 season. Despite not yet having reached the Bengie Molina zone of the WAR scale, his +1.6 wins in 2010 leave a bit to be desired-especially for a player as celebrated among A's fans as Kurt Suzuki.

Suzuki's numbers could change depending on the roster alterations that may or may not occur in the upcoming winter. If a big-time impact bat (or two) is added, and/or perhaps Daric Barton or Chris Carter become legitimate contributors, then it wouldn't be surprising to see Suzuki earn his way back into the upper-echelon of MLB catchers. It's definitely worth noting that he's never been a part of a truly formidable lineup. Suzuki was written in as the third hitter in the A's lineup 59 times last season, tied with Ryan Sweeney. Using him as the A's three-hitter was just as unfair to him as it was to A's fans. It also speaks to how anemic the offense really was (Ryan Sweeney?!). The fact that Suzuki was even considered a three-hitter is a reflection of the few options Bob Geren actually had when he was writing names down.

Kurt Suzuki at a Glance

OPS among MLB C (min 350 PA): 20th out of 23
ISO among MLB C (min 350 PA): 15th out of 23
WAR among MLB C (min 350 PA): 18th out of 23

2010 was still no excuse to panic about Kurt Suzuki's future. It's still completely within reason to expect him to match, or even improve on his 2009 numbers, which were actually above the 2010 MLB average of .257/.325/.403, and just about on par with the 2010 AL average of .260/.327/.407. It's really only the emergence of certain catchers that decreased his relative value among players at that position (in conjunction with the down year). In that respect, A's fans shouldn't grow too worrisome because the catching position won't become the slugger safe-haven that 1^st base has traditionally been. With that said, A's fans aren't going to complain if a few more big bats make it so their everyday backstop doesn't even have to think about hitting 3^rd again, or being penciled in as the designated hitter. Kurt Suzuki probably wouldn't complain either.

The Backup Plan

The backup catching position is far less certain than the starting situation. Josh Donaldson is expected to compete with Landon Powell for the job. Most A's fans know of Landon Powell's health conditions that essentially prevent him from ever being an everyday catcher. What will be interesting is how the spring plays out. Assuming both guys are still around for it, the backup job is Powell's to take, but Donaldson will get the closest look behind him. Josh Donaldson hasn't had enough MLB appearances to compare his big-league numbers to Powell's, but one could argue that not even Powell has gotten an adequate amount either, despite having been on the team for the better part of the last two seasons. A decent comparison of the two could be drawn from their minor league numbers. Landon Powell put up a line of .255/.361/.433 in 306 minor league games while Josh Donaldson has a more favorable line of .271/.366/.460 in 373 minor league games. The defensive aspect however, is in Landon Powell's favor. A 2007 scouting report of Josh Donaldson notes his strong, accurate arm as his greatest defensive asset, while his inexperience at the position, along with his poor footwork, and subpar ball-blocking ability left some scouts questioning his ability to remain a catcher on his way to the big leagues. Landon Powell on the other hand, was named the best defensive catcher in the Athletics organization by Baseball America going into the 2009 season.

Other Candidates

Obviously Max Stassi should get an invite to big league camp, but his performance his first year of professional baseball implies that he has a few things to work on in the lower levels before he becomes a real candidate. Besides, the A's wouldn't waste Stassi's time as a backup anyway.

Anthony Recker has put up solid numbers in 6 minor league seasons with the A's and is subject to the Rule 5 Draft unless he's put on the 40-man roster before November 20

Another interesting case is Anthony Recker. If the A's decide to put him on the 40-man roster before November 20^th, it solidifies his candidacy as a dark horse for the backup job. If not, the A's risk losing him to the Rule 5 Draft. As of right now, Kurt Suzuki, Landon Powell, and Josh Donaldson are the only catchers on the A's 40-man roster. If the A's take into account Recker's .278/.344/.472 line this past year combined between Midland and Sacramento, they may consider adding a fourth catcher to the 40-man.

The Catching Market

When the Athletics signed Kurt Suzuki to a 4-year extension this past June, they did it because they plan on him being around for awhile. That extension, combined with Suzuki's poor play, all but squashed the rumors surrounding Boston's interest in the Maui native. If the A's are even mentioned as a team with interest in the Russell Martin's or Mike Napoli's of this years' offseason, it's because the aforementioned "unforeseeable" has happened…or is about to happen…or may potentially happen…or you're dreaming. The last of which is the most likely. In other words, regarding the A's pursuit of a starting or backup catcher via trade or free agency, all signs point to NO. The A's have too many lineup issues glaring them straight in the face to waste their time debating how much worse Chris Iannetta's numbers could get when 0% of his games are played at Coors Field instead of 50%, or whether a Ramon Hernandez reunion that forces the A's to give up two draft picks could turn out worse than the Jason Giambi reunion of 2009.

Prediction

As much as I'd like to be bold, I'd prefer not looking like an idiot in the end, so I'll try for both ends of the spectrum. I think Suzuki's extension gives Max Stassi time to develop into the A's starting catcher of 2014 or 2015. Additionally, Landon Powell has done fine as the second option over the past two seasons. And while Josh Donaldson is unquestionably talented, he's probably too talented to be a backup. But he's also not going to be the starting catcher. The organizational conditions surrounding Kurt Suzuki, Landon Powell and Max Stassi make Donaldson expendable in my opinion. He's not going to bring back Albert Pujols, but he could add value to a trade package designed by the A's that helps them attain one of the bats they so desperately need.

Starting Catcher on Opening Day 2011: Kurt Suzuki

Backup Catcher on Opening Day 2011: Landon Powell

If Josh Donaldson is on the Opening Day roster, I still think he'll get traded. It's a fair possibility because the A's may try showcasing him during the spring, and the exchange may not actually commence until later into the season.

Other News

The A's have been making some changes to their 2011 staff; some actually are pretty notable for the close followers of the A's.

• Todd Steverson won't be back as the A's first base coach because he was offered a position within the organization
  
• Tye Waller, the A's bench coach of the past couple seasons, will take over at first base (as the base coach that is…Daric Barton will not be replaced by a 53 year old man)
• Joel Skinner, former interim manager for the Indians prior to the Eric "Potato" Wedge era, was named the A's bench coach to replace Waller
  
• Hitting coach Jim Skaalen was fired and replaced by Gerald Perry
  
  • I feel bad for Skaalen; apparently he was pretty disappointed when he found out. You really can't blame the hitting coach for the anemic offense
    
  • Who was the A's hitting coach the last time the A's made the postseason? Gerald Perry in 2006. Maybe he's a charm.
    
• Head athletic trainer Steve Sayles was also let go, but the A's have not yet found a replacement
  
  • This is shocking. In just his first year, Steve Sayles led the A's to a record-setting 25 uses of the DL in 2008. In 2010 he came just short of tying his record-setting feat when the A's injured themselves 23 times. Hopefully it's of some consolation to Soupie that, although he fell short of the mark he set in 2008, the 1,426 combined games missed as a result of the 23 injured Athletics in 2010 set a franchise record

Irreplaceable Expendability

Sadly A's fans will no longer be able to watch Carney Lansford stutter his way through A's pre and postgame shows on Comcast Sportsnet California. The A’s former third baseman/ quasi-analyst was hired by the Rockies as their hitting coach for the upcoming 2011 season. The Giants may not have had the greatest offense when Carney was instructing their hitters, but it’s probably a safe bet to say he knows more about hitting than he does about public speaking.

I’m not sure how to follow up such a prominent event in A’s history as losing Carney to the Rockies, but here goes the comparatively insignificant: Jeremy Hermida, Ross Wolf, and Brad Kilby were outrighted to the River Cats, with Hermida and Wolf subsequently opting for free agency.

Kilby is still a spring bullpen candidate, which would give the A’s another lefty in relief. That candidacy could strengthen or weaken depending on what Beane does in the winter.

Ross Wolf wasn’t used much despite being up for a significant portion of the season. This move isn’t groundbreaking but it sure makes all the time wasted on Jake Fox before flipping him to Baltimore in exchange for Wolf seem even more senseless. Susan Slusser wrote that Wolf was disappointed to leave the A’s, noting that his teammates were all around his age and that “they’re going to be good next year.” Despite what little A’s fans got to know about Ross Wolf, that particular sentiment should be applauded.

Hermida was the “biggest” name in this bunch, but the move itself was not surprising. The expansive collection of mediocre outfielders the Athletics have compiled didn’t do much to enhance the value of Hermida from the organization’s perspective.

Billy Beane faces what is arguably the most crucial offseason in his tenure as the Athletics GM.

Predictions, hopes, desires, speculation, and what makes sense.

The basic principles of economic exchange entail two parties trading resources which they have a substantial supply of, while in return receiving an entity they have a substantial need for. The A’s only real offensive strength was speed: they finished third in Major League Baseball with 156 steals. That really didn’t translate into much-in the American League, the A’s finished 11^th in runs scored, 13^th in SLG%, 13^th in home runs, and 10^th in OPS.

What does this mean? The A’s could try to pitch speed to certain MLB teams who have excess power. The odds of any team biting on such a proposal are slim if the A’s expect the deal to make any real impact. Not many teams overvalue speed anymore. The most notable is probably the divisional neighbor of the Athletics down south in Anaheim, and its unlikely Billy Beane would seek an impact deal with a division rival.

On the more realistic side, the A’s have pitching, pitching, and some more pitching to go along with their pitching. The 2010 A’s finished 1^st in the AL in team ERA, 1^st in shutouts, and were 2^nd in team WHIP. The A’s will more than likely have to give up someone who toes the rubber in order to get an impact bat. Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson and Gio Gonzalez should remain untouchable. Vin Mazzaro is easily expendable, so he’s obvious bait-I’m sure the A’s are just waiting to see who actually bites. The tricky situation is when Dallas Braden is thrown in the mix. A lot of people believe his perfect game enhanced his trade value a tremendous amount. A lot would even say its made people over-value Braden, so much so that the A’s could get something even more valuable in return. I actually think just the opposite. Baseball executives are smart people. They’re not going to be tricked by something flashy. But Braden’s numbers this past season weren’t just “alright.” They were good. In some cases, they were really good. Yes, Gio Gonzalez led the A’s in WAR, Trevor Cahill broke out one of the nastiest sinkers in the game to win 18 games at the age of 22 years old, and we all know what Brett Anderson is capable of. But Dallas Braden was one of the most efficient workers in baseball in 2010. Braden walked 2.01 batters per nine innings, good enough for 5^th in the AL. As a result, his WHIP was just 1.16, good enough for 6^th in the league. He also missed throwing 200 innings by just 7.1 innings. His reliance on fooling hitters with off-speed pitches rather than velocity allowed Braden to toss 5 complete games, two of which were shutouts. To put Braden’s efficiency in perspective, Trevor Cahill led the rotation in WHIP at 1.11, 4^th in the AL. Braden was 6^th, just 0.05 behind his teammate. Brett Anderson, also known for his efficiency, finished at 1.19, with Gio Gonzalez rounding out the fab four at 1.31. Most people would’ve likely assumed Braden third in WHIP in the rotation at best, given Gio’s erratic control at times. But Braden proved to be the 6^th most efficient starting pitcher in the American League.

Is that worth a bat? Consider what rules everything: $

The other side of things where I would be in favor of a Braden trade are financially related. Braden will easily be the A's most expensive arbitration case this offseason. But that's an easily countered argument because the A's are going to have quite a bit of money to spend anyway. Ben Sheets ($10 million), Justin Duchscherer ($1.75 million), and Eric Chavez ($12 million/ $12.5 million 2011 option [$3 million buyout]) have all likely seen their last days in green and gold. Those three players alone take $20.75 million off the A's payroll. Furthermore, money owed to longtime A's great Willy Taveras comes off the books this winter, in addition to cash still owed to Jason Giambi after his release in 2009. Pending options to Coco Crisp and Mark Ellis that total roughly $11.75 million combined could give or take money from the final tally. Gabe Gross, Jack Cust, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Conor Jackson and Travis Buck could all possibly disappear from the payroll as well, though it's unlikely Kouz will be set free, and I'd prefer to see Conor Jackson take on the Gabe Gross role of 2011.

Despite all the money to spend, the A's aren't going to go on a free agent shopping-spree this winter. For one, it's been well documented that the teams' had a fair amount of trouble convincing big-name hitters on the open market that the Coliseum isn't as bad as it looks (literally). Secondly, the open market doesn't have too many great-looking investments this year anyway. Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth, Adrian Beltre, Manny Ramirez, and Adam Dunn all come to mind as real impact bats. I'm hoping the A's stay away from a one year deal with Hideki Matsui or Johnny Damon. A Miggy reunion would certainly be welcomed but Tejada's a type-A free agent, and I'm not sure the 37 year-old warrants the loss of two draft picks. Quite frankly, the only one I would be really happy to see the A's sign who the Yankees haven't already psychologically outbid them for is Adam Dunn. Nat's GM Mike Rizzo called Dunn "the most consistent player in the game" awhile back. It would be nice to get some consistency on the offensive side of things in Oakland for once.

Hopefully the excess money is used wisely. Extensions through the arbitration years of Cahill, Gio, possibly Braden, and maybe even Barton would be nice to see, especially if the A's could add some options onto those potential deals.

Hopefully soon I’ll be able to get my next post up. I’m trying to break down each component of the team in a few parts. I’d like to point out some things I believe are possible, and how certain needs could be addressed. I’m going to try to do one post about the infield, the outfield, the bullpen, and the rotation.

After they've gotten a few more games in I'll provide updates on Grant Green, Steve Parker, and Michael Taylor, who are all playing for the Phoenix Desert Dogs in the Arizona Fall League. Travis Banwart, Michael Benacka and Justin James also join them in the desert as the A's pitching representatives for Phoenix. Let's hope none of our big time prospects win AFL MVP before deciding to become priests.

That’s all for now. Thanks for reading.

Okay, I'm Going to Try This Again

Hello again Les’ A’s readers that may or may not exist. It’s been over a year since I last posted here and since I’ve yet to reach New York Times proportions, I can’t say I apologize to anyone other than myself. What is perhaps most unfortunate (in my opinion at least) is that I failed to document the Athletics first non-losing season since they made the ALCS in 2006. “Non-losing” is a key term here because the A’s chose to have the only possible record out of 163 possibilities over the course of 162 games (there’s 163 possibilities because the first possible record going from worst-to-best is 0-162, which counts 0 as the first number…I said “possible” as in the mathematical sense, I didn’t say “feasible”) that could be as non-descript as a .500 winning percentage, and our Athletics finished at 81-81.

While it may have been rather depressing if A’s fans had known the highlight of the season would come five weeks into the year, Dallas Braden’s perfect game on May 9^th was as unforgettable as any moment in A’s history. While I don’t recall winning the 1989 World Series, (I was two years old) the excitement I felt watching the A’s clinch playoff berths, becoming AL West Champions, and winning twenty consecutive games, all paled in comparison to the excitement I felt when Gable Kapler grounded out to Cliff Pennington to end the game that Sunday afternoon.

On May 9, 2010, Dallas Braden threw the 19th perfect game in Major League Baseball History

The long term effect the game had on the pennant race was obviously far-less substantial than winning twenty straight or being crowned AL West Champions since it was only one win-but to witness something as rare as a perfect game accomplished by one of our own is nothing short of remarkable. Just imagine if nothing else is considered when it happens. There is no grand scheme, there’s just that one game. If a perfect game is isolated from all of the politics and events of baseball (i.e. rivalries, standings, suspensions, other teams, previous games, future games, etc.), it is perhaps the most exciting occasion in all of baseball. A champion is crowned every year, but a perfect game only happens an average of once every six years (though we pretty much had three this year).

2010 may not have been a monumental season in A’s baseball, it was nevertheless a stepping stone. 2011 looks to be quite bright if Billy Beane makes due on his promise to find a solution to the power outage that plagued the Athletics throughout the season. Upcoming posts here on Les’ A’s will focus on the strengths and weaknesses of the 2010 team, possible solutions to the weaknesses, and various analyses of the myriad of components that make up not just the Oakland Athletics as a team, but as an organization.

State of the Team for September 15, 2009

This one's going to be brief. Edgar Gonzalez took the mount and we finally took advantage of a non-terrible outing from the guy. Every time he does alright it seems like the A's go out of their way to not score...kind of like the way Jack Cust seems to go out of his way to lead the league in strikeouts...does he know Carlos Pena's done for the year? He doesn't have to go on a strikeout rampage just to take the honors of AL whiff-leader. Anyway, A's are playing great, this could be (I'm crossing my fingers for no jinx) the A's first winning month since last June. Very unlikely to finish .500 (they'd have to go 15-3) like some had hoped this time last month, but there's a good chance they improve on last year. Sadly, Vin Mazzaro looks to be done for the year and, while I know he wasn't doing that well, I say it's sad because we have to keep Edgar Gonzalez in our rotation. And to make matters worse, some other pitcher who'd be an adequate mid-rotation guy in triple-A will have to take the mound because Brett Tomko has a pinched nerve...who thought anyone would be disappointed to not see Brett Tomko? The A's starting pitchers seem to be dropping like flies...Outman, Braden, Mazzaro and now Tomko are all down, which leaves Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill as the only ones remaining from the rotation that started the year. I guess that's why they're Olympians. It's funny that with Mazzaro out now, all these extra arms have seemingly been thrown in with the sole purpose to protect Cahill and Anderson. Obviously it's still interesting to see how Gio does, as well as the rest of the team, but so much is being done to preserve these young arms that it almost seems as though Billy Beane thinks the two Olympians are the Holy Grail he's desired for so long. It's too bad they can't hit...

But the Riverkitties lost their first game in the PCL finals to Memphis, maybe we'll get to see some guys who can hit once their seasons done..

.Both Anderson...

AND Cahill are Bronze Medal-winning Olympians, and the only two members of Oakland's opening day rotation that still pitch every 5...I mean 6 days...

Good win! Some of the better baseball this year is being played right now. It's too bad the games are so achingly long with all the reinforcements for the pitchers...

Trevor Cahill looks to bounce back from his most recent eye-blink of an outing...Go A's.